Pre-Ramble: According to the National Weather Service, our favorite fuzzy forecaster is going to have one heck of a time plowing his way up to find his shadow in the midst of what is being hailed as an epic ”monster storm.”

As shown on the map at right, parts of nine states — Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Wisconsin, Michigan and Ohio — are covered by a “patchwork of color-coded advisories and warnings” as freezing rain, sleet, high winds and sub-zero temperatures cut a 2,100 mile swathe through the region. (We’d hate to see Punxsutawney’s silvery pelt pelted with sleet.) Please take note as well, that Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania (marked by a black star) falls in the pink zone, the designated second tier of the “winter storm warning” area.

According to Groundhog’s Day tradition (and wikipedia) …

… Every year since 1887, the town of Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania celebrates the beloved groundhog on February 2 with a festive atmosphere of music and food. During the ceremony, which begins before sunrise, “Phil” emerges from his temporary home on Gobbler’s Knob, located in a rural area about two miles east of town. If Phil sees his shadow and returns to his hole, he will predict six more weeks of winter. If he does not see his shadow, Phil will predict an early spring. After making the prediction, Phil speaks to the Groundhog Club President in “Groundhogese”, which only the Inner Circle – a select group recognizable by their top hats and tuxedos – appear to understand, and then his prediction is translated for the entire world.

Me thinks the Inner Circle has had one too many sips of the “mysterious Groundhog Punch” …  Members of the Inner Circle take care of Phil year-round and plan the annual ceremony. Phil currently has two co-handlers, Ben Hughes and John Griffiths.

Shadow Stats – Of the 114 predictions on record so far, Phil has predicted an early spring 14 times (12%) and according to the StormFax Weather Almanac and other pertinent records, he has been correct 39% of the time.

The Take-Away:  In spite of the fact that the Milwaukee’s Waukesha Elks Lodge has canceled the area’s 103rd Annual Groundhog Day Celebration due to blizzard conditions, I predict that Phil will take umbrage with the weather forecasters this year and successfully buck any storm front fall-out in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania with those pearly-white, world-class incisors.

Post-Note:  Last year, a text service was established to transmit Phil’s predictions… mobile phone users can text the word “Groundhog” to the number 247365. Also, as expected, there is a facebook fan page for Groundhog Day the movie – as of this writing it has 6,810 fans.

Pre-Ramble:  This just in — that toothy marmot, Punxsutawney Phil crawled out of his lair earlier today and saw his stupid shadow, which means we get another six wretched weeks of winter. 

I take umbrage to that, you lethargic rodent!

You know, there is totally a conflict of interest here. According to the National Geographic News, as per the Groundhog Day tradition,

“If Punxsutawney Phil emerges from his temporary burrow—a simulated tree stump at the rural site of Gobbler’s Knob—on February 2 and sees his shadow, winter weather will continue for six more weeks. But, if Phil doesn’t see his shadow, then spring temperatures are just around the corner.”

Basically, this means that a “shadow” call buys P. Phil six more weeks of lollygagging in his lair, whereas, the “no shadow” call means an immediate suspension of hibernation mode. Any weasel with half-a-brain could figure that one out.

Plus, folks over at the U.S. National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) have estimated that “while Phil’s proponents maintain that his predictions are 100 percent accurate, … Phil is only correct about 40 percent of the time…”

“… By taking Phil’s predictions and comparing them with average temperatures in February and March, [we have been able to determine that there have been] many years when Phil’s predicted six more weeks of winter weather, and February and March turned out to be warmer than average.”

Pathetic!  This celebrated varmint has got one job to do — make a single, stinking weather prediction – and he only scores right 40 percent of the time?!   He’s got a lot of nerve and one heck of a PR firm. 

The Take-Away:  All this fuss for a two minute photo op and some lame guesstimate?!  …  In a nod to the new millennium, let’s upgrade the format … That chubby rascal may as well change his name to G-Hog, stay in his flippin’ burrow, flip a coin, and Tweet the outcome on his fan page.