Pre-Ramble: According to the National Weather Service, our favorite fuzzy forecaster is going to have one heck of a time plowing his way up to find his shadow in the midst of what is being hailed as an epic ”monster storm.”

As shown on the map at right, parts of nine states — Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Wisconsin, Michigan and Ohio — are covered by a “patchwork of color-coded advisories and warnings” as freezing rain, sleet, high winds and sub-zero temperatures cut a 2,100 mile swathe through the region. (We’d hate to see Punxsutawney’s silvery pelt pelted with sleet.) Please take note as well, that Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania (marked by a black star) falls in the pink zone, the designated second tier of the “winter storm warning” area.

According to Groundhog’s Day tradition (and wikipedia) …

… Every year since 1887, the town of Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania celebrates the beloved groundhog on February 2 with a festive atmosphere of music and food. During the ceremony, which begins before sunrise, “Phil” emerges from his temporary home on Gobbler’s Knob, located in a rural area about two miles east of town. If Phil sees his shadow and returns to his hole, he will predict six more weeks of winter. If he does not see his shadow, Phil will predict an early spring. After making the prediction, Phil speaks to the Groundhog Club President in “Groundhogese”, which only the Inner Circle – a select group recognizable by their top hats and tuxedos – appear to understand, and then his prediction is translated for the entire world.

Me thinks the Inner Circle has had one too many sips of the “mysterious Groundhog Punch” …  Members of the Inner Circle take care of Phil year-round and plan the annual ceremony. Phil currently has two co-handlers, Ben Hughes and John Griffiths.

Shadow Stats – Of the 114 predictions on record so far, Phil has predicted an early spring 14 times (12%) and according to the StormFax Weather Almanac and other pertinent records, he has been correct 39% of the time.

The Take-Away:  In spite of the fact that the Milwaukee’s Waukesha Elks Lodge has canceled the area’s 103rd Annual Groundhog Day Celebration due to blizzard conditions, I predict that Phil will take umbrage with the weather forecasters this year and successfully buck any storm front fall-out in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania with those pearly-white, world-class incisors.

Post-Note:  Last year, a text service was established to transmit Phil’s predictions… mobile phone users can text the word “Groundhog” to the number 247365. Also, as expected, there is a facebook fan page for Groundhog Day the movie – as of this writing it has 6,810 fans.

Pre-Ramble:  When we lived in Arizona, “snow bird” was a demographic. Every year in late November, people from all parts North would migrate into town. Seriously, the population would double – every road, resort and restaurant clogged with leisurely-driving, turquoise-wearing, Early-Bird-Special-eating tourists.  

And the thing was, we weren’t on vacation. We were just trying to live our lives … going to the grocery store to find food, … going to the bank to cash a check, … going to the park to scald ourselves on the play equipment, … or going to the mall to get out of the ”dry heat.”  And let me remind you that pizza ovens are dry heat. 

Anyway, here it is, March 31st in Saint Paul, Minnesota, and there are gigantic clusters of snowflakes falling outside (not them above). It’s just rude. The indignant expression on the beak of the tufted titmouse (photograph by Allison Trentelman) says it all. We have totally been duped. All of that chirping, melting and sunshiney-ness going on last week was just a cruel scam. In light of this development, I must concede that my recent blog announcing the arrival of spring may have been premature.

The Take-Away: Consider this a retraction on my previous proclamation of spring until such time as there are some more concrete indicators — a green blade of grass; a flower sticking up through the frozen crust of leaves; quacking sounds from the pond across the street; squirrels. In the meantime, to take your mind off the disobedient weather, visit more of Allison’s beautiful photography at her online shop and blog.

Pre-Ramble:  So, we just returned from a little Spring Break trip (quality time with the fam, ate lots of seafood, saw a couple gators); we’ve already had the daylight-savings-time “spring forward” event (and lost a perfectly good hour of sleep); the lovely sound of chirping birds has begun to fill the morning air; and the incessant sounds of dribbling basketballs, squeaking sneakers, and hollering husbands has begun to fill the family room (NCAA Basketball Finals, a.k.a., March Madness). 

In fact, the first official day of spring is signaled by the Vernal Equinox, a point at which the sun is directly above the equator. March 20th was the first day of spring for 2009. Somebody needs to tell that huge pile of hideously dirty snow at the end of our driveway.

The Take-Away:  Spring is most definitely here!  This explains the inexplicable urge I have to clean out closets and throw away all of my winter clothes — well, at least rotate in the light-weight turtlenecks.