Pre-Ramble: According to the National Weather Service, our favorite fuzzy forecaster is going to have one heck of a time plowing his way up to find his shadow in the midst of what is being hailed as an epic ”monster storm.”

As shown on the map at right, parts of nine states — Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Wisconsin, Michigan and Ohio — are covered by a “patchwork of color-coded advisories and warnings” as freezing rain, sleet, high winds and sub-zero temperatures cut a 2,100 mile swathe through the region. (We’d hate to see Punxsutawney’s silvery pelt pelted with sleet.) Please take note as well, that Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania (marked by a black star) falls in the pink zone, the designated second tier of the “winter storm warning” area.

According to Groundhog’s Day tradition (and wikipedia) …

… Every year since 1887, the town of Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania celebrates the beloved groundhog on February 2 with a festive atmosphere of music and food. During the ceremony, which begins before sunrise, “Phil” emerges from his temporary home on Gobbler’s Knob, located in a rural area about two miles east of town. If Phil sees his shadow and returns to his hole, he will predict six more weeks of winter. If he does not see his shadow, Phil will predict an early spring. After making the prediction, Phil speaks to the Groundhog Club President in “Groundhogese”, which only the Inner Circle – a select group recognizable by their top hats and tuxedos – appear to understand, and then his prediction is translated for the entire world.

Me thinks the Inner Circle has had one too many sips of the “mysterious Groundhog Punch” …  Members of the Inner Circle take care of Phil year-round and plan the annual ceremony. Phil currently has two co-handlers, Ben Hughes and John Griffiths.

Shadow Stats – Of the 114 predictions on record so far, Phil has predicted an early spring 14 times (12%) and according to the StormFax Weather Almanac and other pertinent records, he has been correct 39% of the time.

The Take-Away:  In spite of the fact that the Milwaukee’s Waukesha Elks Lodge has canceled the area’s 103rd Annual Groundhog Day Celebration due to blizzard conditions, I predict that Phil will take umbrage with the weather forecasters this year and successfully buck any storm front fall-out in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania with those pearly-white, world-class incisors.

Post-Note:  Last year, a text service was established to transmit Phil’s predictions… mobile phone users can text the word “Groundhog” to the number 247365. Also, as expected, there is a facebook fan page for Groundhog Day the movie – as of this writing it has 6,810 fans.

Pre-Ramble:  If I’m going to be shoveling them (again), I may as well do a little diligence. According to the experts at Wikipedia:

Snowflakes are conglomerations of frozen ice crystals which fall through the Earth’s atmosphere. They begin as two snow crystals which develop when microscopic supercooled cloud droplets freeze. Snowflakes come in a variety of sizes and shapes. Complex shapes emerge as the flake moves through differing temperature and humidity regimes. Individual snowflakes are nearly unique in structure.”

Apparently, a guy named Wilson Alwyn “Snowflake” Bentley (1865-1931) tried to find identical snowflakes and photographed thousands of them with a microscope to capture and catalog the different shapes.  I know how hard it is to get a good shot of my dog (not her below) for the Christmas card … I can only imagine how difficult it is to get a group of snowflakes to cooperate.

The Take-Away:  Buck up for another round of the white stuff … flurries scattered everywhere. Alas, this winter isn’t over yet.

Post-Note:  Is it just me, or are the weather forecasters and Hillary Clinton using the word “region” much more frequently than in the past??

Pre-Ramble:  This just in — that toothy marmot, Punxsutawney Phil crawled out of his lair earlier today and saw his stupid shadow, which means we get another six wretched weeks of winter. 

I take umbrage to that, you lethargic rodent!

You know, there is totally a conflict of interest here. According to the National Geographic News, as per the Groundhog Day tradition,

“If Punxsutawney Phil emerges from his temporary burrow—a simulated tree stump at the rural site of Gobbler’s Knob—on February 2 and sees his shadow, winter weather will continue for six more weeks. But, if Phil doesn’t see his shadow, then spring temperatures are just around the corner.”

Basically, this means that a “shadow” call buys P. Phil six more weeks of lollygagging in his lair, whereas, the “no shadow” call means an immediate suspension of hibernation mode. Any weasel with half-a-brain could figure that one out.

Plus, folks over at the U.S. National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) have estimated that “while Phil’s proponents maintain that his predictions are 100 percent accurate, … Phil is only correct about 40 percent of the time…”

“… By taking Phil’s predictions and comparing them with average temperatures in February and March, [we have been able to determine that there have been] many years when Phil’s predicted six more weeks of winter weather, and February and March turned out to be warmer than average.”

Pathetic!  This celebrated varmint has got one job to do — make a single, stinking weather prediction – and he only scores right 40 percent of the time?!   He’s got a lot of nerve and one heck of a PR firm. 

The Take-Away:  All this fuss for a two minute photo op and some lame guesstimate?!  …  In a nod to the new millennium, let’s upgrade the format … That chubby rascal may as well change his name to G-Hog, stay in his flippin’ burrow, flip a coin, and Tweet the outcome on his fan page.

Pre-Ramble:  According to my MSNBC homepage, the East Coast is “bracing for a potent March snow storm,” and “a rare snow blanketed the South, prompting over 200 churches in the central part of the Bible Belt to cancel morning services.”  As I look out over our freshly shoveled driveway, I am given pause to consider the relative aspects of these reports. This kind of challenging weather is an everyday occurence here in Minnesota… In fact, the Twin Cities just bounced back from a doozy of a storm that introduced eight inches of  the fresh white fluffy stuff into the evening commute. No big deal. We can handle it. True Minnesotans actually get crabby if a winter season doesn’t have its share of noteworthy weather. Our poor kids never get a snow day.

One thing I’ve noticed is that weather reports definitely have their share of blowing and drifting verbiage … not unlike news reports that throw around unnecessarily inflammatory words to describe current economic conditions (a topic I have discussed in a couple of recent blogs; 2/17 and 2/4).

By the way: A few more additions to the ongoing list of Unnecessarily Inflammatory Words… hobbled, soured, trepidation, turmoil, pervasive, pernicious, faltering, rescue, negative, contenders, beleaguered, buffeted, Buffetted*(* I just made that one up), brink, failure, hit (as in “take a major”), difficult, uncharted, teeter, free-fall, and the week’s top characterization expressed by Christina Romer, chairwoman of the Council of Economic Advisors, “Obama administration officials have been watching ‘in horror’ what’s been going on around the world.”

Apparently, major economic indexes have tumbled to their lowest levels in twelve years and for the sixth straight month, the Dow Jones industrial average has fallen — and is now teetering — at less than half of its all-time record worth of 14,165. That’s gotta be bad news – unless you’re on a playground, teetering is never good.

The Take-Away: Sure, the economic climate is looking a little rough. It’s probably going to take a while to dig out from this one. But, like a big snow storm, it doesn’t really do any good to panic. Heck — we’re tough — we don’t need no stinkin’ snow days!  Buckle down, bundle up, and look on the bright side – the economy might not be warming up as quickly as we might have hoped, but there’s still a good chance that we could get another few nasty weather events before the fishing opener!

Brrrrr… Kristen and Daisy in their squall jackets. After a week of temperatures in the double-digits below zero, it’s finally fit for human and beast to be outside. Nothing like a Minnesota winter!